# South Africa petrol price in December: why it may fall even as Treasury claws back relief > Early Central Energy Fund data points to cheaper petrol in December, but diesel drivers face a rise as Treasury scales back its fuel levy relief. Money & Markets · Binatec Pulse · David Banjo · Published 2026-11-09T15:05:28.000Z · Updated 2026-11-09T14:41:18Z Canonical: https://pulse.binatecagency.com/money/south-africa-petrol-price-december-forecast ## Key points - Early CEF data shows petrol 93 over-recovering by R2.02 a litre and petrol 95 by R2.32, as of the first week of November. - BusinessTech's projection is R28.35 for 93 inland, before the slate levy, and R32.34 for 0.05% diesel. - Treasury's levy relief steps down in December: R1 a litre on petrol (from R1.50) and R1.50 on diesel (from R3). - The numbers are early and will move with the rand and Brent crude until month end. South African motorists could see petrol get cheaper in December, but diesel is set to cost more. That is the early picture from the Central Energy Fund (CEF) data for the first week of November, [reported by BusinessTech](https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/882938/great-news-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-3/) on 6 November. The projections are provisional and will change as the month goes on. ## What will the petrol price be in December in South Africa? Petrol is heading down on the early numbers. According to BusinessTech, petrol 93 had an over-recovery of R2.02 a litre and petrol 95 an over-recovery of R2.32 a litre in the first week of November. An over-recovery means the product cost less than the price the pump formula assumed, and that gap usually turns into a price cut. BusinessTech's projection for inland pump prices is R28.35 a litre for petrol 93 and R28.42 for petrol 95, down from R29.87 and R30.24 in November. That figure does not include the slate levy of around R1.50 a litre, which the same report says is not included, so treat it as a best case rather than a final price. ## Why is diesel going up while petrol falls? Diesel faces a different story because of the Treasury relief. Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana announced R10 billion in temporary fuel levy relief in October, [as Engineering News reported](https://engineeringnews.co.za/article/r10bn-in-temporary-fuel-levy-relief-announced-amid-record-fuel-prices-2026-10-21). It cut the levy by R1.50 a litre on petrol and R3.00 on diesel from 4 November, and the relief steps down in December to R1.00 on petrol and R1.50 on diesel, according to BusinessTech. That means 50 cents a litre is added back to petrol and R1.50 a litre to diesel. Petrol's over-recovery is large enough to swallow the 50 cents. Diesel's is not: the early data shows only R0.01 a litre for 0.05% diesel and R0.35 for 0.005% diesel, so the projected prices rise to R32.34 and R32.75 a litre, from R30.85 and R31.60. ## What happened to the November price? The November adjustment was lopsided too. [Daily Maverick reported](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-11-03-petrol-price-to-drop-only-1-cent-diesel-by-more-than-r1.md) that petrol dropped by only 1 cent while diesel fell by more than R1 a litre after the levy cut took effect. December reverses part of that pattern: petrol benefits from market movements, while diesel gives back part of the Treasury help. ## What is driving the over-recovery? Two inputs matter most: the oil price and the rand. BusinessTech notes that Brent crude fell to around $95 a barrel after the US mid-term elections, down from near $118 the previous week, and that global oil prices dropped below $100 a barrel for the first time in months. The rand was around R16.50 to the dollar, and Investec chief economist Annabel Bishop expects it to strengthen further. Bishop also noted that fuel price cuts are typically used to reverse levy cuts, so consumers feel less of the change. That is exactly the dynamic here: a market gain on petrol is partly absorbed by the levy relief stepping down. ## How reliable are these December forecasts? Not very, yet. The CEF publishes mid-month and month-end data,. Between now and then, a weaker rand or a rebound in Brent could shrink the over-recovery. Oil prices have swung by roughly $23 a barrel in a single week, which shows how quickly the picture can change. If you budget for fuel, a sensible approach is to plan around the diesel increase and treat the petrol cut as a possible bonus rather than a certainty. Fleet owners and taxi operators, who run mostly on diesel, have the most to lose from the levy relief stepping down. ## Who is most affected by the diesel increase? Diesel moves through the whole economy. Trucks, buses, farm equipment and generators all run on it, so a R1.50 a litre swing eventually shows up in freight rates and food prices, not only at the pump. A petrol driver gets a small, visible saving. A logistics firm faces a cost increase that it will try to pass on. That is why the diesel side of this forecast deserves as much attention as the petrol cut, even though petrol gets the headlines. Pulse will publish the official December adjustment once it is announced. Until then, the projections above are the best public indication, and they come from a single week of data. ## Questions people are asking ### Will petrol be cheaper in South Africa in December? Early CEF data points to a decrease of R2.02 a litre for petrol 93 and R2.32 for petrol 95 before levy adjustments, but the final figure depends on the rest of November. ### Will the diesel price go up in December? BusinessTech's early projection shows diesel rising, because the R1.50 a litre levy relief that ends is larger than the small over-recovery so far. ### How much is the fuel levy relief in December? BusinessTech reports the relief drops to R1.00 a litre on petrol and R1.50 a litre on diesel, from R1.50 and R3.00 in November. ### When is the December fuel price announced? The official adjustment is announced shortly before it takes effect, so watch for the government's announcement at the end of November. Pulse will publish it once it is out. ## Sources 1. [Great news for petrol prices in South Africa](https://businesstech.co.za/news/energy/882938/great-news-for-petrol-prices-in-south-africa-3/), BusinessTech 2. [R10bn in temporary fuel-levy relief announced amid record fuel prices](https://engineeringnews.co.za/article/r10bn-in-temporary-fuel-levy-relief-announced-amid-record-fuel-prices-2026-10-21), Engineering News 3. [Petrol price to drop only 1 cent, diesel by more than R1](https://www.dailymaverick.co.za/article/2026-11-03-petrol-price-to-drop-only-1-cent-diesel-by-more-than-r1.md), Daily Maverick