El Niño in Nigeria: why the country tops the heat death forecast and what to do now

A projection that has been widely shared in Nigeria this autumn says the country could suffer more heat deaths than any other in the world during the current El Niño. The figure comes from the University of Chicago's Climate Impact Lab, and it was published on 28 September 2026 by Gavi's VaccinesWork, republished from The Conversation. This explainer sets out what the number means, what it does not mean, and what Nigerian agencies are telling households to do.

What is a super El Niño, and what has NiMet said about it?

El Niño is a warming of the Pacific Ocean that shifts weather patterns across the world. In its August 2026 update, the Nigerian Meteorological Agency said its analysis of ocean data confirmed the onset of a strong El Niño event that "continues to intensify steadily", and described it as a "super El Niño" with significant implications for Nigeria's rainfall. NiMet also said the event raises the likelihood of above-normal temperatures globally.

The World Meteorological Organization's September update, as summarised in a ThisDay opinion piece, confirmed that El Niño is firmly established and likely to persist through February 2027. Note that "super" is a label used in forecasts and media coverage rather than a formal scientific category.

Why does Nigeria top the projected heat death list?

The Climate Impact Lab estimates about 451,000 additional heat deaths worldwide between September 2026 and February 2027, compared with a normal year. Four Sahel-region countries account for 66,800 of them, and Nigeria alone is projected at 31,400, nearly half of that group and the highest total for any single country. Sudan is put at 17,500, Niger at 10,000 and Chad at 8,000.

The researchers point to how many people Nigeria has (237.5 million) and to how hard it is for many of them to stay cool. Over 60% of Nigerians were below the national poverty line in 2025, according to the same analysis, and even homes with electricity face power cuts. Heat danger is not only about temperature. It is about whether a household can afford a fan, a steady power supply and clean water.

How reliable is the 31,400 figure?

It is a projection, and the authors say so. They took temperature changes from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' seasonal forecast, converted them into death estimates using peer-reviewed research covering 24,378 regions, and compared the results with the average for the same months from 1996 to 2025. The estimates therefore depend on the forecast holding. The study also did not directly examine who is most at risk, so the authors draw on other research for that. Nobody has counted these deaths, and a NiMet-issued death estimate has not been published.

What else is at stake beyond heat?

El Niño does not only mean heat. The African Development Bank has warned that the event could cost African countries between $10 billion and $20 billion, with the most affected economies seeing GDP fall by 1% to 2% on average and maize prices possibly doubling in some areas. The bank named Nigeria among the countries facing severe humanitarian challenges, though the report gives no Nigeria-specific cost.

On food, the World Food Programme's analysis, as reported by Nairametrics, projects about six million more people could face hunger in West and Central Africa, with effects reaching into 2027 because planting and harvest cycles are disrupted. Flooding is part of the picture too: the ThisDay piece cites the Nigeria Hydrological Services Agency as identifying 14,118 communities in 266 local government areas across 33 states and the FCT as high risk for flooding in 2026.

What is NEMA telling Nigerians to do?

The National Emergency Management Agency published an eight-point advisory on 25 October 2026 via X, summarised by Legit.ng. In short:

• Limit heat exposure: avoid outdoor activity between 11 am and 4 pm, use shade, wear a hat and stay hydrated.
• Conserve water: fix leaks quickly and store water in clean, covered containers.
• Prepare for extreme heat: dress lightly, use sun protection and check on children, older people and others at risk.
• Protect health: prevent dehydration and heat illness, keep surroundings clean to reduce malaria and waterborne disease, and seek medical care early.
• Ensure food security: keep emergency supplies, support local and home farming and protect livestock and poultry.
• Protect livelihoods: grow drought-resistant crops and diversify income where you can.
• Stay informed: follow NEMA, NiMet and trusted media and report emergencies to the proper authorities.
• Act as a community: share information with neighbours and look out for vulnerable people nearby.

The Chicago researchers recommend that governments in the region set up heat early-warning systems with action plans, run health outreach for older people, open cooling centres and hydration stations in high-risk areas, protect outdoor workers during peak hours, and prepare hospitals for more heatstroke cases.

What should readers take from this?

Treat the number as a warning about vulnerability, not a prediction of a specific outcome. The practical point is that the people most exposed are the ones with the least cooling and the least reliable power, and that is where local help counts most. Checking on an elderly neighbour during the hottest hours costs nothing and is exactly what the official advice asks for. For the latest weather warnings, follow NiMet and NEMA directly.

Is this advice medical guidance?

No. This article summarises published projections and official advisories. For symptoms of heat illness such as confusion, fainting or a very high body temperature, seek medical care immediately.